Posts Tagged ‘Andre Miller’

NBA Ramblings: Top Ten Points Guards For The 2009/2010 Season

Friday, September 11th, 2009

Top Ten Point Guards for the 2009/2010 Season

Last year was a break-through years for several point guards. Mo Williams and Jameer Nelson both got their first All-Star births, Devon Harris was in the running for Most Improved Player, Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo both stepped up big in the playoffs and Steve Nash and Jason Kidd were both awarded big contract in the offseason. So which point guards are going to make an impact this season? Here is my list of who I think are going to be the top point guards this season.

Honourable Mention:

Steve Nash and Jason Kidd

Last season I had both Steve Nash and Jason Kidd in my top ten, and though I think they still have some tank in the gas and will make an impact this season, I don’t think they will be two of the ten best point guards, even if they both rank in the top ten in assists (which I imagine they will since they both got big pay-days with their respective teams and will be getting lots of minutes). These guys are still two of the best playmakers, but they won’t be getting the numbers they have in the past and their rebounding and scoring numbers have dipped as well, diluting their overall impact.

Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams

Both these guys had career years with contenders last year, and even though they both broke into the All-Star game last season, I still think the others on this list will bring more to their respective teams. The Magic relied on Turkaglu and Howard last year, and the Cavs rode on the back of LBJ. These guys are not the Scottie Pippens and James Worthies of their generation. They are good, even great, but not that great.

Devon Harris

Big fish in a little pond? Perhaps, but he got the ball and minutes in Dallas too, and that was a deep team. Harris will put up great numbers this year, but it will be on a team that doesn’t compete.

Raymond Felton and Russell Westbrook

Both these guys are great young point guards who need to work on their shooting percentages. Felton doesn’t yet have a contract and has competition for minutes in Charlotte, and Westbrook will be good on a young team in the west that will be ill equipped to compete, but both will make solid contributions, even if they don’t get to showcase their talents in competitive playoffs games.

Gilbert Arenas

Perhaps Arenas should be in the top ten, and perhaps there are Washington fans who might even put him in the top three, but I just can’t do that. Like many point guards his field-goal percentage is low, and I could forgive that if he had a solid assist-to-turnover ratio, but he doesn’t. In my book a solid point guard, not a great point guard mind you, but a solid point guard, should hand out at least two assists for each turnover and Arenas has never been able to do that. A great point guard should also be able to hand out 7-10 dimes a game and Arenas is a score-first point guard who has never handed out more than 6.3 assists. Still, there is something about Arenas that helps Washington play better and there is no doubting his athletic ability, but being a scoring point guard, history does not bode well for this Washington team with Arenas at the helm.

10. Mike Bibby

Great vet on a young Atlanta team that will play well and come playoffs I imagine Bibby will make me look stupid for not putting him higher on the list, but I see Crawford and Johnson as the go-to guys for Atlanta this season. Still, Bibby is a vet who has hit big shots for the Kings in the past, and he bring a maturity to the team, as well as solid numbers and the ability to play off the ball. He is a point guard who is comfortable when the shooting guard or small forward bring the ball up and still moves well on the court when he isn’t handling the rock. Arenas may put up higher numbers than Bibby, but Bibby will play into his team and help them achieve more this season.

9. Rajon Rondo

After winning a title with Boston, I thought Rondo’s only real flaw was his midrange jumper. Defenders knew he couldn’t hit it and so dipped behind the pick-and-roll to block him on the drive (that said at least he was smart enough not to take shots he couldn’t hit). Last season though he was hitting them, not as well as some, but well enough to force defences to adjust. Boston was without their star forward in Garnett last year in the playoffs, but Rondo stepped up, had a great battle with Derrick Rose in the first round, averaged a triple-double on the series and played great in the second round as well. His game is so much more complete, he can drive like Tony Parker, dish the ball on the drive, and has improved his mid-range jumper and proved he can help on the boards. He also is one of very few point guards to shoot over .500 from the floor and has balls enough to take the ball to the hole when he knows he’s got an opening despite the fact he’s on the floor with three future HOFers (most young guys would just hand the ball over to Pierce, Allen and Garnett). With a healthy roster next year, Rondo’s improved arsenal will help give Boston one of the best starting-five in the league and rather than being a weak link, he will make the Celtics better.

8. Andre Miller

Even though Miller has never had a high field-goal percentage, I’ve always thought he brought a lot to the court. He helps set up plays for teammates and works hard on defence, and his shooting has only ever hurt teams when they have depended on him for scoring. In Portland he will be required to act as a facilitator. Portland had a 50+ win season last year without a good point guard, and with rising stars like Roy and Aldridge blossoming into All-Stars, Miller will be the perfect point guard to help turn Portland into a true contender and I think will help push them into the playoffs.

7. Jose Calderon

While Mo Williams and Jameer Nelson earned their first All-Star appearances, Jose Calderon continued to go on being underrated. Calderon has high percentages across the board, great three-point shooting (over 40%), field-goal shooting (over 50%) and free-throw shooting (over 98%, and NBA record). He also had one of the top assist averages and an amazing assist-to-turnover ratio (better than 4-1, the best in the league as far as I know, and one of the best ratio’s of all time as far as my memory serves me). He doesn’t have the drive to the basket that Tony Parker and Rondo have, but he’s got a game not unlike Stockton. He shoots when he’s open and looks to set up his teammates and would be a great asset to a contender, but he will still bring a lot to a Toronto team that would be extremely luck to even reach the playoffs. It’s a shame that Calderon wasn’t on a team like Portland or Cleveland, or even Philly where his talents could really shine. I hope Toronto fans appreciate having such a unique talent on their team.

6. Baron Davis

I’ve always been high on Davis, he has had great playoff performances in Goldenstate, and as a member of the Charlotte Hornets, but last year was a big let down for Clippers fans. With a great team on paper, the Clippers were underachievers, playing through injuries while trying to integrate several new players to the system. This year I think will be different. Davis has a year in L.A. under his belt and a great squad on paper with three solid rebounders upfront and some good scorers on the wing. Davis will be a leader on the floor and will likely put up as many triple-doubles as any point guard in the league. Like some other shooting guards, Davis needs to improve his field-goal percentage, but he works the boards, sets up plays and scores 20+ a game. If he can take fewer shots and focus on playmaking, the Clippers will be a contender despite what most sports analysts might suggest. Yes, I said contender. These guys are a lock for the playoffs!

5. Tony Parker

Tony Parker’s numbers may not be as impressive as the numbers put up by Chris Paul or Derron Williams, but he plays on a deep team that shares the ball, and will be this season again. But his ability to drive to the basket gets teammates space to shoot and helps to put points up on the board. He’s got the one of the best shooting percentages on this list, better than 2 assists for each turnover and helps work the boards. The only flaw in his game is his three-point shot, which is endurable since Parker is the point guard to one of the best three point-shooting teams in the league. His inability from beyond the arc will be minimized since his job is to either penetrate and dish, or penetrate and score and so will be a valuable asset to a title contending Spurs team this year.

4. Chauncey Billups

Chauncey Billups was high on my MVP list last year because even though he doesn’t put up the best numbers in the league, he makes teams better. He has the longest consecutive conference finals run going among all current players, he is the best defensive point in the league as far as I can see, he hits big shots (even if his field-goal percentage is low) and his hands out more than 2 assists for each turnover. His impact on the Nuggets alone garners a high spot on this list, and his past accomplishments with Detroit back up his MVP status. Even though he isn’t the best point guard, what he brings to the court and what he inspires in his teammates (defensive efforts and sharing the ball) make him more valuable than his stats suggest.

3. Derrick Rose

Some may suggest that this is a high placement for such a young point guard, especially considering that Kidd and Nash aren’t in my top ten, but after the performance he put up in the playoffs I feel compelled to give him a high ranking, and come the end of the season I imagine that some would suggest Rose is on a par with Derron Williams and Chris Paul. As a rookie Rose did everything right. High field-goal percentage, minimal fouls and a solid assist-to-turnover ratio, and with Ben Gordon off to Detroit the scoring load will be on Rose, who I think will step up. I’m not sure that he will be dethroning the other young point guards who have been dropping jaws the past couple of years, but I anticipate the he will put up numbers that would suggest he is one of the five best point guards in the league.

2. Derron Williams

There is a very small gap between the top two guys on this list as far as I can see, but a gap none-the-less. Williams has one of the better shooting percentages on this list, the 07/08 season saw Williams shoot over 50% from the floor and though he dipped a little bit the following season, it was no doubt in part due to the fact that he had come back from injury and saw defences that could focus on him whilst teammate Carlos Boozer was out with an injury. Last season he handed out a career high 10.7 assists despite a slight reduction in minutes, and saw a career high 19.4 points as well, and Williams is one of those guys who makes improvements on his game each year as he has either remained steady or improved his numbers in; scoring, assists, steals and free-throw percentage each of his first four seasons, and save last season when defences focused on him, has also improved his field-goal percentage as well. He’s also managed to reduce his personal fouls and keep his turnovers low despite increasing assist numbers. And one thing he may have on Chris Paul that may make Williams better equipped for a playoff run is his size. He is a solid 6’3 a point guard, and while there are some who may have an inch on him at that position, they are few and most often not as talented (Billups is the only top ten point guard that is taller than Williams).

1. Chris Paul

Picking between Paul and Williams is hard, but the numbers seem to weigh in Paul’s favour. Paul has a better field-goal percentage, over 50%, which is impressive enough coming from a point guard, but doubly impressive when you consider that Paul is one of the shorter point guards in the league and the little guys usually have a harder time getting a good shot off because it is easy for taller defenders to reach for their shots and alter them. He’s got a decent 3 point shot but doesn’t use it unless he’s open because he knows its not his strong point, he’s great from the line at over 85%, he scores 20+ a game but is a pass first point guard who is an assist shy of a 4-1 assist to turnover ratio (11 assists a game to 3 turnovers). His biggest draw backs are his height, which forces him to give up a lot on defence, and the fact that to impact the game he has to have the ball in his hands. That’s not to say he’s a ball hog because there isn’t a person in the league who loves setting up his teammates more than Paul, but he does need to have the ball in his hand to draw defenders to him in order to get his teammates open. The height he gives up on defence is tough to swallow, but he does make up for it in effort. Charlie Rosen of Fox Sports recently wrote that Paul was overrated, saying his defence is defined by his steals which depends on others mistakes, but that gives no credit to Paul’s hustle which forces opponents to make mistakes. Sometimes he gambles to get the steal, like Iverson or Doug Christie of yesteryear, but for the most part he plays close and forces turnovers, and even if he is waiting for others to make mistakes, no point guard takes advantage of those mistakes better than Paul who lead the league in steals the last two years. Trying to knock Paul for the fact he knows how to exploit the mistakes of his opponents is reaching if you ask me. Rosen also claims that Paul is impotent when double-teamed, but in my opinion that is when Paul plays his best because he is a natural passer who knows his ability to score draws defences in and creates opportunities and open shots for his teammates. I don’t think Paul will be able to play at this level when he hits his 30’s because so much of his game relies on his speed and agility and those things don’t stay for long no matter how great your conditioning is, but his fundamentals will keep him playing at a starting level for well into his 30’s because of his low turnovers, high assists, and great shooting, and for the next couple seasons at least Paul will be the best the league has to offer.

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NBA Ramblings: Calling All Point Guards!

Friday, July 24th, 2009

In this year’s draft teams seem to have gone point guard crazy. Even teams that have a solid point guard rotation picked up point guards in the draft. The Bucks had a solid point guard rotation this season and still drafted Brandon Jennings, the Jazz have one of the best point guards in the league (and a decent back up) and still drafted Eric Maynor, the Hornets have arguably the best point guard in the league and still drafted Darren Collison, and the T-Wolves drafted THREE point guards! Despite all floor generals picked up in this year’s draft, there are still some teams in dire need of a point guard. The Trailblazers have a couple of guys who have shown potential but no finite leader to play along side of Brandon Roy, the 76ers, who in my opinion are very close to being legit contenders for a titles, may find themselves two steps behind where they were last season if Andre Miller chooses to leave the team (as it seems very likely will happen), the Pistons have one of the best back-up point guards in the league in Will Bynum, but the starter, Rodney Stuckey, has an unimpressive field-goal percentage and an even less impressive assist-to-turnover ratio, and the Celtics would like to have a solid back-up to give Rondo Raja a break every now and then, and also have an insurance policy should anything happen to him in the course of the season. There are slim pickings in the free agent market at the point guard position, but there is good news as the only teams with cap space aren’t looking for a point guard (with the exception of Portland), so teams with the mid-level exception may be able to get bargain rates on a great point guard, while more creative GM’s might be able to broker a trade for some young talented point guards who have been stuck on the bench. So lets take a look at some point guards who may be able to help some teams at a low cost.

Nate Robinson (Knicks)

Lately Robinson has been looking to Europe to get a sizable offer, and since Earl Boykins did this last year, and earned himself a few more million than NBA teams were willing to offer (tax free and in Euros), Robinson may go that route. Some players though want to play on the big stage, and a dunk champ like Robison could make up for a small NBA pay check via endorsements, which may not be as lucrative in Europe (though I’m sure there are European companies who might offer American basketball players endorsement deals). So for Robinson the choice is between playing on the big stage, or getting a big pay check. If he wants the pay check NBA teams are out of luck. If he wants to play on the big stage he may be a good fit in Boston, who still has the bi-annual exception to offer him (2+ million dollars). He’d get to back up Rondo and get some minutes, and neither his size, nor the fact that he really plays more like a shooting guard than a point guard would hurt Boston since that is very much the role Eddie House played. Paul Pierce is a great ball handler and can set up the plays while Robinson is on the court, and Robinson’s speed and agility should help to spark Boston’s offence when Rondo is on the bench. Coupled with that, Robinson just seems like a great guy who wants to win and exudes a positive demeanour, and this is the type of player you want representing you off the court, and helping raise spirits in the locker room. He’d be a great addition to a championship contender, and Boston seems like it would be the perfect fit. The only draw backs are that Robinson can’t fill in at the point guard spot should Rondo get injured, and doesn’t have the range that Eddie House has. I don’t think there are a lot of other teams with whom Robinson would fit well, but if he doesn’t go to Europe, a one year contract with Boston should get him some exposure and raise the league’s interest in him as a solid role player on a legit contender.

Andre Miller (76ers)

Miller is the best point guard on the market right now and would be a great fit in either Philly or Portland. He is a veteran who has proven he can handle the responsibility, and is a big reason why Philly has been so successful the last couple of seasons. He was mature when Philly was losing and didn’t act like a prima Donna, and played at a high level when they started performing well and showed he could be depended on in pressure situations. His only draw back is that he’s on the wrong side of 30. That said, he’s only 33 (J. Kidd and Steve Nash are both on the wrong side of 35 and still commanding big contracts), and he is only asking for a respectable three or four year deal. I’m not saying that Miller is as good as Nash or Kidd, but come next season, he may very likely be playing better than either. His game is not in decline mode, he still plays as well as he did when he was 29, and he will be playing at that level for at least 2 more seasons. Sure, come the third or fourth season of a 3 or 4 year contract, his role may be reduced, but the bottom line is he’s not asking for all-star salary, just one that offers a little security. Miller stepped up his game in the playoffs, this year, put up better numbers than Kidd did, (20+ points, 6+ rebounds and 5+ assists), he shoots close the 50% from the floor and around 80% from the line (though he’s not great from behind the arc) and gets at least 2 assists for every turnover. Bottom line is that he’s a great player. He’s looking for a three year deal, and he will be playing at his current level certainly for the first two season of the deal, and would be a great mentor to any young point guard. Philly should do what it takes to keep him because he is a great fit there, but if they are too stingy then Portland should use their cash to pick him up. Portland is a young team and their window for contending will certainly be longer than the rest of Miller’s career, but he will put them a step ahead of where they were last season and give them a couple seasons helming the team, during which they can find an apprentice. Not too many other teams are in the running in terms of available cash, but Miller would be a great fit for any team in contention. European teams may also have an interest as well, and Miller’s playing legs would certainly last longer in Europe.

Travis Diener (Pacers)

The NBA’s free agent tracker says that Diener is a free agent, the Pacer’s home page does not, so I’m not sure what the situation is contractually with this guy (he may or may not have exercised his player option for this upcoming season), but the fact of the matter is that the Pacers are looking to cut salary (they’ve already let Marquis Daniels and Jarred Jack go and finally bought out Jamal Tinsley), and Diener doesn’t get a lot of minutes and is prime to get an opportunity. He’s 27, ready to start playing in his prime, but is locked on a team that has a starting point guard (T.J. Ford) who is earning big money and won’t be benched anytime soon. Diener is an attractive point guard for two reasons, he is a pass-first point guard with a great assist-to-turnover ration (2.2 assists last season and only 0.3 turnover for an insane ration of 7-1!) and shoots 39% from behind the arc, and his stats indicate that with starting minutes he’d likely get a couple steals a game. While his 1.6 rebounds a game seem meek, he only gets about 13 minutes a game and plays point guard, so that number actually shows great potential. This guy needs to start next season to see what he can really do. It would be a gamble for any team to start him because he’s never been the go-to guy at the point, but he’s shown that he has got the fundamentals down. I’m not sure how strong he is on defence, and that may or may not be a draw back, but its clear he can handle the ball very well and shoot from long range (though his mid-range shooting is nothing to write home about). And the best part is, as I have mentioned, he is a pass first point guard. Teams like Portland, Detroit, and Philly, who all have big scorers, would be a great fit for this guy, because he essentially only shoots when he’s open, and he gets the ball to the scorer without turning it over, and what more can you ask for from a point guard. If Philly is in need of a point guard come training camp, they should call up Indiana and see what it will take to pry this young talent away.

Ramon Sessions

In his rookie year Sessions put up 7.5 assists a game and only 2.1 turnovers, an impressive ration. His sophomore season saw his assists go down and scoring go up, along with his field-goal percentage, and he’s a consistent rebounder. Sessions may be the second best option at point guard in the free agent market, but like the other top point guards available this season, he’s a solid midrange shooter, but he doesn’t have much range behind the arc. If the 76ers lose out on Miller, they may want to make a run at Sessions.

Raymond Felton

His long range shooting isn’t so hot, and his midrange shooting isn’t much better, but he can drive the lane, handle big minutes, and distribute almost 7 assists a game with only a little over 2 turnovers a game. Like Sessions he is also young, which give him a leg up on a couple of the older point guards on the market, but he’s also a restricted free agent and Charlotte can match all offers.

Jammal Tinsely

Tinsley is veteran pass-first point guard with a respectful assist-to-turnover ratio and is dying to prove himself after a year in purgatory. I’m still not sure why the Pacers wouldn’t buy out his contract last season, but it the buyout is done and he’s ready to play. The big drawback for any team looking at Tinsely is his shooting (which is awful), but hopefully that is something he has worked on over the last season. With that shooting though Tinsley could be a major liability in the playoffs, but is an team loaded with offensive weapons and in need of a distributor could use Tinsley and even if he’s only a backup he can still offer a lot of help.

Jason Williams

A year after an oddly timed retirement announced only weeks after signing a lucrative deal with the Clippers, Williams is coming back out of retirement. Early in his career Williams was famous to two things: flashy passes, and turnovers. I always thought people were a little hard on him, but he has improved his ration over his career. What hasn’t improved much is his shooting, but he knows that himself and doesn’t push the matter during games by taking shots he should be taking. During their title run the Celtics saw several teams exploit Rondo’s inability to shoot the midrange jumper, the next season Rondo worked on that part of his game and is now putting up respectable numbers. Players like Williams and Tinsley though had exhibited poor shooting throughout their careers and that aspect of the game can really hurt a team come playoff time. Coming off the bench these types of players can help, but in a starting role it would be hard to win. The Celtics did it, but they also had Paul Pierce on the floor and he could handle the ball, while Rondo, though a poor shooter last season, could still cut to the whole as well as anybody in the league (and like Sessions, he has shown improvement in his midrange jumper).

Allen Iverson

There isn’t a team in the league that needs Iverson to score 30 points a game to turn them into a contender, and that seems to be essentially what Iverson wants. He wasn’t able to win in Denver (though they were able to win without him), and he made an issue about coming off the bench for Detroit, so there doesn’t seem to be many options for Iverson outside of retirement or Europe. If Iverson displayed the humility to come off the bench then a team like Boston could use him and be unstoppable with such a potent offensive weapon coming off the bench, but lets face it, Iverson is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body, which means he’s to small to defend other shooting guards. Iverson is at the point of his career that Dominique Wilkins was at when he skipped over the Europe. He wasn’t able to dominate like he had, and neither can Iverson, and no team sees him as a franchise player that they could put a team around. Had Iverson shown some maturity in Detroit, he’d be more appealing to other teams, but his acting out and baby tactics make him unappealing despite his talent level. His inability to defend, his age, and his maturity are all big question marks that make Iverson a big gamble that could cause a team to meltdown in the locker room, but being as talented as he is, he could be a big payoff. Sadly, I think his career is over and retirement or Europe are the only real options for Iverson.

Stephon Marbury

Much has been said about Tracey McGrady’s inability to get into the second round, but Marbury has had a similar issue. Only as a backup with Boston was Marbury able to make the second round and quite often his teams have missed the playoffs altogether. In the playoffs Marbury has yet to average double figures in scoring. New Jersey and Phoenix both saw dramatic improvements after moving Marbury, New Jersey replaced him with Jason Kidd and won back-to-back conference championships after missing the playoffs, while the Suns became perennial contenders with Nash after Marbury guided them to the lottery. That says a lot about what Marbury brings to a team. His personal stats have often been impressive, but his teams have seldom won. So it seems that Marbury doesn’t have much to offer teams and is in much the same situation as Iverson. Marbury has been open to offers from Europe and since he’s got a couple solid years left in him it seems logical that he might go somewhere where he could be employed. He’s a great scorer (though not a great shooter) and loves to play the game. But there just aren’t any teams that a player like that to make them better right now. Europe seems like the best place for Marbury, and he already has mentioned the idea of promoting his shoes over there.

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