Posts Tagged ‘Pacers’

NBA Ramblings: Top Ten Small Forwards For The 2009/2010 Season

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Top Ten Small Forwards

In gauging the top ten small forwards, this list takes into consideration the impact and value to the team, personal performance and stats, and talent. Some talented players are on deeper teams and have smaller roles (Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Richard Jefferson and Shawn Marion) and in turn have meek stats, while others who are equally talented, or perhaps a little less so, have bigger roles on weaker teams (Al Harrington, Danny Granger), so it is hard to compare similar players who play different roles for different teams. So the teams success, personal stats and talent are all taken into consideration.

Honourable Mention

Tayshawn Prince/Shane Battier

Two of the best defenders in the league; ’nuff said.
Stephen Jackson

Jackson’s talent is clear, as are his potentially beneficial leadership skills, but he is unhappy (understandably) with Goldenstate’s direction and has put himself in the dog house by demanding a trade. I don’t expect him to make a very big impact this season considering Goldenstate’s inability to trade him (what with his sizable contract and all), coupled with his unwillingness to work with this team, but things could turnaround.

Caron Butler

Its not that I don’t think he is as good as some of the guys on this list, he is, he will just be sharing minutes with Mike Miller so his role will be diminished, though his talent will not be. Washington is deeper on the perimeter and has their top scorer back, so Butler, being the team player he is, will see his numbers dip in order to help the team.

Lamar Odom

He plays both forward spots, and he plays his best when he and Pau Gasol are sharing power forward and center duties at the same time, but his diverse skill set and height gives him many advantages at small forward, and even if his numbers seem meek, his impact is huge. With Ron Artest on the team, his minutes may be further reduced, but his talent will still help the Lakers win games.

Ron Artest

The best defender at his position? Maybe, but I think he is a little overrated in this respect, though still very much among the league’s elite. Like Butler and Odom he will be taking a reduced role to help his team win and so may not put up the numbers that his peers do, but if this list was purely on talent and not also about over-all impact (the MVP factor) and numbers, Artest and Odom would both be in the top ten for sure.

Richard Jefferson

Jefferson is a talented all-around player and knows how to win (he’s been to the finals twice with the Nets), and with his new team, The Spurs, I expect he will bring a lot to the team, and even if his number are meeker than in seasons past, he will help to create some match-up issues for opposing teams.

Jason Richardson

Richardson is a talented scorer and though he doesn’t have the complete game that some on this list have, he has mastered the parts of the games he’s good at, and even when he’s on the losing team, his high energy level and ability to break away to the basket provide entertainment to all in attendance.

Josh Howard/Shawn Marion

I’m not sure how these two talented small forwards are going to work out the minutes, but Drew Gooden will be eating up all the reserve minutes at power forward so it looks like one of these guys is going to have to learn to play shooting guard if either of them want more than 24 minutes a game. Both these guys are great players, Howard’s a great scorer and solid all-around player, and Marion an elite defender, rebounder and all around player. Outside of Boston and Cleveland, the Mavs may have the best small forward rotation in the league (though that doesn’t make up for their lack of a center).

John Salmons, Al Thorton and Thad Young also get a nod from me as solid contributors for their respective teams.

10. Al Harrington

Harrington has long been an NBA prospect it seems. Indiana chased after him twice, Atlanta signed him as a young free agent, and the Warriors pick him up expecting him to be an improvement on Mike Dunleavy Jr. (which I think he is). But Harrington has had trouble getting his minutes. In Indiana the Pacers were still trying to get their footing in the post-melee era, and in Goldenstate he saw more time on the bench than he had expected when Don Nelson (I know, I’m shaking my head too) went with a small line (that could have easily included Harrington) and benched the talented young forward. New York though has Harrington a new lease on life and when he first arrived in New York he indeed managed to put up numbers the surpassed most on this list, though he couldn’t keep those averages up all season. Harrington is a natural scorer, who works the glass and keeps up on defence. The only knock on Harrington is that he’s never had a particularly high field-goal percentage (though he has maintained a respectable one), and he has never been much of a play maker. He doesn’t create a lot of turnovers, but nor does he create a lot of assists, and the former outnumber the later, which is never good. I expect Harrington to have another solid year with the Knicks and once they sort out their roster after free agency in the 2010 offseason I expect that Harrington will end up being a key role player and secondary scoring option, but as of right now, he is the most consistent player the Knicks have and outside of David Lee.

9. Rudy Gay

I’m having a hard time placing Gay for a number of reasons, most of all the Iverson/Randolph factor. The past couple of seasons Gay has been the best scorer on a team that didn’t have a lot of scorers, and though he remains their best option at small forward and will certainly be starting there, it is unclear where he will fit on the offensive pecking order. Randolph will certainly call for the ball in the post and Iverson, even if he is coming off the bench, will want the ball in his hands, and Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo have both displayed the ability to handle the ball and score. Talent alone should dictate that Gay will still be the first option of offence, but Mayo and Randolph are deserving of as many touches, and Iverson and Conley will likely be handling the ball a lot while rookie Hasheem Thabeet, and least year’s rookie sensation Marc Gasol will also be earning their own shots. This is a deep squad and Gay’s position is unclear, but he remains a great athlete, he has a long lean body that creates match-up problems and he works the glass and on defence, so its hard to imagine him not being the go-to guy on this squad. Either way he is one of the top young small forwards and deserving of a spot in the top ten.

8. Josh Smith

Josh Smith is one of those unique players, athletic, muscular, hard working and great all around player, and by all around I mean he knows how to drop numbers into each statistical category. Like Gerald Wallce, he works the glass, gets some steals, gets some blocks, scores some points and hands out more assists than he does turnovers, and his field-goal percentage has gone up ever year since his sophomore effort (up to almost 50% last season). The only whole in his game seems to be long range shooting (which is an excusable default at his position) and at the free-throw line where he has actually gotten worse over the years (58% last year, after shooting over 70% the year before- I’m scratching my head too). The only knock on Smith is that he’s not a power forward, which is the position he plays much of the time. His height and work ethic allow him to keep up with most power forwards, but when you watch his game it is clear that he is a small forward by nature. He’s a great defender on the perimeter, and he is athletic and quick, but the Hawks, who have been short a true power forward the last couple of seasons, have been forced to play Smith at power forward a lot. With the addition of Joe Smith, and the emergence of two solid rebounding centers in Zaza and Al Horford, I imagine Josh Smith will get to play more minutes at his natural position, and I expect the Hawks to make a run at the division title with their newly acquired depth.

7. Hedo Turkoglu

Easily one of the most underrated players in the league, while the Cavs ran into the offseason looking for somebody to match up with Dwight Howard for the 2010 post season, the Raptors went and did the Cavs a huge favour, they picked up one of the most important pieces of Orlando’s success last season. While Howard is a dominant player, the Cavs front court made him work for every bucket and every board, but Turkoglu took advantage of his unique skill set and height advantage to give the Magic the upper hand over the Cavs. Turkoglu is not as great a shooter as many imagine him to be (only 41% last year), but he is a great three point shooter and he is a solid rebounder from his position (5+ a game), but the most important aspect of Turkoglu’s game is his ability to pass. He, like Paul Pierce and LBJ (and Scottie Pippen in years gone by), can play the point forward position. He can bring the ball up the court and set up plays, create for himself off the dribble and allow an undersized shooting guard (guys like Ben Gordon, Eddie House and Monta Ellis to name a few) to come in and spell the point guard without causing his team to give up anything in terms of playmaking, and when Jameer Nelson went down with injury, Turkoglu’s ball handling skills are what carried the Magic through the regular season. He is not a dominant offensive or defensive player, but he is solid at both and his unique skill set creates options for his coach, while his height advantage creates interesting miss-matches that also allows his coaches to exploit opposing team’s short comings. He may not put up the numbers that some others do, but he has as big an impact as many of the most talented small forwards in the league.

6. Gerald Wallace

Wallace is the best rebounders on this list, as well as one of the best athletes and best all-around players. He’s even got an edge on LBJ in a couple statistical categories (rebounding and steals). He works the glass, he busts his ass off on defence, he shoots around 48% from the floor and 80% from the charity stripe, he hands out more assists than he does turnovers and gets almost as many steals as he does turnovers and the only real knock is that he isn’t an elite scorer and could afford to lower his personal fouls (though he is not in the red in this respect by any means). Even when new coach Larry Brown seemed uninterested in Wallace and put him on the trading block, he still busted his ass off and eventually gained (or at least seemed to) the respect of Larry Brown (which isn’t easy to do if you ask any of his former players). He gets steals, some blocks, he passes, rebounds and scorers, and has a team first mentality. If he were on a team like the Spurs he’d be even more dangerous, but as it is he is playing for the Bobcats, and while fans may not get to watch him in the post season, they can still certainly watch this very talented player in the regular season.

5. Carmelo Anthony

I’m sure there are going to be some pissed of Denver fans who think Carmelo should be a little higher on the list (if anybody from Denver ever happens to my blog), but Danny Granger, though a later bloomer when compared next to Carmelo, is still a better player right now. Carmelo has been very fortunate to have been surrounded by a lot of talent for most of his career, but it is clear that despite having a solid front court around him (Nene, Camby, Martin and Andersen have all be working the boards for Denver in the past), and though he has always had a couple other scoring options, he has never been able to lead Denver into serious title contention. That did not happen until Billups came to town, so Anthony just doesn’t have that intangible leadership quality that separates the elite players in the league (and Anthony is an elite player). That said, Anthony is a great scorer, a great athlete, a solid defender and a great rebounder, and for all those reasons he simply cannot be left off of this list.

4. Danny Granger

Granger’s rebounds actually dipped a little bit last season, but he was called upon to play small-forward almost exclusively, so that is understandable. That said, his assists did go up and personal fouls came down slightly while his scoring soared along with his leadership skills. Last season Granger saw the Pacer’s organization lean on him and he responded in turn. His defensive stats were solid (over a block and a steal a game), his scoring jumped up to 25+ a game (second only to LBJ at his position), and the Pacers actually saw an improvement in their team. That is not to say Granger has perfected his game, he’s got to bring down his personal fouls, as well as his turnover to be the perfect compliment to his team, and he may have to relinquish some of the scoring duties and defer (like Paul Pierce has done) if the Pacers are to gain any ground on other Eastern conference teams, but Granger has provided the kind of responsible leadership that the Pacers have been in constant search of in the post-melee era and Granger is the type of guy that will lead by example to help improve his team. I expect the Pacers to make the playoffs this year and even make some noise (a first-round series win is not out of reach for this team), and I expect Granger to be at the center of this team’s success.

3. Kevin Durant

In the 07/08 season, despite easily winning the Rookie of the Year honours, Durant showed many of the classic problems that plague rookies. High turnovers (3 a game), low field-goal percentage (43%) and low three-point percentage (28%), though he did manage to keep his personal fouls below 2 a game. In his sophomore season there was dramatic improvement. His rebounding and assist numbers jumped up, and his field-goal percentage (up to 47%) and his three-point percentage (42%) both saw increases and his team got better. Durant is playing for a weaker team in a competitive western conference, and though his team got off to a rough start last year, they played competitive ball the second half of the season and did not provide simple and easy fodder for the league’s elite. I don’t imagine this year that they will be able to break into the elite, or even the playoffs for that matter, but they have a talented young team and Durant is that team’s leader. The only thing he really needs to improve is his turnover rate, and he could afford to be more of a defensive presence (not that he‘s bad in this regard, just not outstanding yet).

2. Paul Pierce

There are a number of small forwards who put up more points, or more steals, or more boards than Pierce, but Pierce remains an elite defender, even if his defensive stats don’t rank amongst the league leaders (just look at how he handled LBJ and Kobe Bryant in the ‘08 playoffs). Pierce is a solid play maker and gives his team a ball-handling option when the point guard is on the bench, and he is also a team-first player who took a back seat as a scoring option (despite the fact he’s easily a 25+ point scorer), to help the team perform better. There are some younger guys (like Granger) who are coming up and will give Pierce a run for his money, but his experience, ball handling skills and defence (and his ring) place him just a shade under James and a level above the rest of the players at his position.

1. LeBron James

While some may argue that James is not the clear cut best all-around player in the league, there is no doubt; James is certainly the best small-forward and an easy choice for number one on this list. LeBron James is the top scorer among small forward, the top assist maker, and the best rebounder at small forward outside of Gerald Wallace (who played some minutes at power forward for the Bobcats who were short a decent power forward). And Wallace is the only small forward to get more steals that James. As for blocks, AK-47 and Danny Granger were the only small forwards to log more blocks per game than James. Not to mention he is the reigning MVP, he’s great on defence, always takes the best scorer on the perimeter, and he is arguably the best offensive player at his position, and not only can he always get his shot, but he is clutch as well. He proved that last year by making some big shots in the Orlando series, and the season when the Cavs made it to the NBA finals for the first time, James reeled of 20+ straight point at the end of the fourth quarter and into an overtime against the Pistons. There is no reason that I can think of to have James anywhere other than number one on this list.

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NBA Ramblings: Season Projections (The East)

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

NBA Season Projections

Atlantic Division Forecasts

1. Boston Celtics

The big three are all on the wrong side of 30, but they are still at the pique of their careers. This will be their third year together and baring injury, there will be no team that will be able to prevent them form taking the conference let alone their division. They have the second best power forward in the league (Duncan is my number one), the second best small forward in the league (LBJ is obviously the first), the best pure shooter in the league and Rondo has finally come into his own, establishing himself as one of the premiere point guards in the league, with a decent twenty-foot jump shot that no longer allows defender to fall behind the pick-and-roll on him, and a drive that is as quick as Tony Parker’s. They don’t have a second ball handler at the point, but when Eddie House, the shooting guard in a point guard’s body, is on the floor, Paul Pierce can easily manage ball handlings duties. The loss of Leon Powe does thin them out a bit, but they still have Perkins at center and Glen Daivs to back him up, and the addition of Rasheed Wallace gives Boston a versatile front court player who can play center and power forward, can pass and shoot and defend. He may start, but having him come off the bench to spell Garnett and Perkins seems like a better idea to me.

2. Philadelphia 76ers

Even while healthy last year, Elton Brand did not blend in with this 76ers team, and the loss of Andre Miller is going to have a huge impact on this team. This team though is still better equipped than any team in the Atlantic Division outside of Boston. They have a solid shooting guard in Andre Inguodala, and a solid back up with much range in Jason Kapono. Thaddeus Young is a talented young small forward who is still improving his game, Brand can still be one of the best power forward in the league and Samuel Dalembert is a solid, consistent rebounder (despite the fact that the 76ers have been shopping him around all summer). If the 76ers front office is expecting Louis Williams to replace Andre Miller, they are sadly mistaken. His shooting is even worse than Miller’s and he doesn’t have any experience leading a team. The only other option at the point is rookie point guard Jrue Holiday, who may turn out to be a solid contributor, but hadn’t even crack double digit scoring in college before being drafted. Their hole at point will make it hard to compete in the playoffs, but the regular season should see them finish up in the same position in the Atlantic Division as they were last year, even if they get a few less wins.

3. Toronto Raptors

Before the Raptors fans get to excited about finishing third in the Atlantic, they should keep in mind that even if they move up in the Atlantic Division, they still won’t make the playoffs. As much as I like Chris Bosh, I still see him as being an overrated small fish in a big pond. He is a solid player, but he still remains very slender for a power forward and he can get out muscled by guys like Boozer, Garnett and even Zach Randolph. They now have a versatile small forward in Hedo Turkaglu, as he can handle the ball while Jose Calderon is on the bench, and he can shoot and create miss-matches at his position given his height. They even have a guy that can back up Bosh in Reggie Evans (who may even be able to play some minutes at center when Bargnani isn’t working the boards). But the loss of Kapono lets defences come in a little, so unless DeRozan, their first-round draft pick, can make a case for rookie of the year, they won’t have the depth, even in their starting line-up, to go a full season at keep pace with playoff teams.

4. New York Knicks

Donnie Walsh has done some impressive work with the Knicks, shedding salaries while bringing in some decent talent, and my Canadian roots may unjustly be placing the Raptors above the Knicks, but since the Knicks failed to land the players they wanted in the draft (Curry and Rubio both got picked up by other teams) and have not chased after any free agents with the aim of keeping their cap space open for next year’s free agent market, there have not been any improvements. Eddy Curry is supposed to be back next season, and supposedly is “in the best shape of his life”, but such things have been heard almost every off season from this perpetual under achiever. If the Knicks keep Nate Robinson and David Lee, then they should be able to compete since Chris Duhon and Al Harington will be returning and will help fill out a decent starting line up with Larry Hughes, but those are big ifs, and even with a healthy team the Knicks still don’t have any players who could even be ranked in the top five at their position in the league, and perhaps none who could even argue they are in the top ten at their position outside of Lee. They do have three rookies on the team, and Jordan Hill may prove to be a potential 20/10 power forward, but if the Knicks are going to turn to rookies this season, they will find themselves in even more trouble than if they stay the course.

5. New Jersey Nets

The best news for Knicks fans is that the Nets will make sure they don’t finish last in their division. The Nets may even finish with the worst record in the league this year, giving themselves lots of cap space, a high first round pick, and some decent young talent. It is clear with the Vince Carter trade though that this team has already thrown in the towel for this season.

Central Division

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

With a one-year window to win, the Cavs will be working hard to make the most out of this season. They have the best player in the league (for now), so that’s a good start for any roster, and they have picked up Shaq, Jamario Moon and Leon Powe, so they have some more depth in the front court, but last year’s playoffs didn’t see the Cavs lose out because of a lack of depth in the front court, what they saw was Rashad Lewis and Hedo Turkaglu taking advantage of their 6’11 frames, while Courtney Lee also took advantage of the inches Delonte West gave up at shooting guard. Jamario Moon may not be a shooting guard, but he can match up with shooting guards on defence and he may turn out to be an even more important addition than Shaq if the Cavs go with a big line-up in the playoffs. Mo Williams is a solid point guard, and with Powe, Anderson Varejao, Shaq and Zydranus Ilgauskus all sharing minutes at power forward and center, the Cavs look solid at all the front court positions. But if Moon stays at small forward (which is likely since he is not a shooter), the Cavs will still be short at shooting guard and when the playoffs role around, they will find that their offseason additions have not helped as much as they hoped. And an improvement at the coaching position would help, being as how Mike Brown has been out coached in the playoffs every season since he’s taken over the Cavs.

2. Indiana Pacers

With T.J. Ford handling the point and a very talented Travis Diener and Earl Watson battling for minutes at that same position, the Pacers may be the deepest team at the point even if they don’t have the best point guard starting. Coupled with that they have Danny Granger and a healthy Mike Dunleavy sharing small forward and shooting guard duties, the Pacers look like a contender from the 1-3 spots. After that though, the Pacers don’t look so hot, even if they have potential. They have drafted a potential 20/10 stud at power forward in Tyler Handsbrough, and they have Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy at center (both are capable of double-digit rebounding), so the Pacers should have enough muscle under the basket to push them into the playoffs, but against elite teams the Pacers may not be able to compete in the front court, but this team is better than a lot of people might think and Pacers fans have a right to be excited. Is it wrong for me to think they have too many white guys on the team?

3. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls put up quite the fight in the first round of the playoffs, and Ben Gordon was a big part of their playoff push, but even though Gordon is gone to the Pistons, the Bulls are still on their way up. Last year’s playoff roster was missing Luol Deng, who should be back and healthy this year, and Joakim Noah looks like he is on the verge of coming into his own this season, while Tyrus Thomas continues to show potential. And just in case something goes wrong with any of those guys, the Bulls have two rookies at power forward to step in, not to mention the best passing center in the league in Brad Miller. At point guard Derrick Rose is coming off a great season and a great playoff performance and I expect him to put himself in the running with Chris Paul and Derron Williams as the three best young point guards in the league. John Salmons may not be as big a scorer as Ben Gordon was, but he has three inches on Gordon and doesn’t give up as much height on defence as Gordon did. I expect that the Bulls will not only get in the playoffs, but I can see them maybe even getting out of the first round if the draw the right match-up.

4. Detroit Pistons

As much as I like Detroit, I can’t say I like what’s happened to them. I think Ben Gordon is the worst signing of the season, and considering the fact that the Piston already have one of the best shooting guards in the league in Rip Hamilton, it was an utter waste of their cap space. Don’t get me wrong, I think Gordon is talented, but he is a sixth man, and sixth men should eat up so much of your cap space. He gives up too much height for a shooting guard (he’s only 6’3 and that’s giving him an inch or two), so he can’t guard other shooting guard effectively no matter how hard he works, and he doesn’t have the ball handling skills to cover the point. The Pistons are high on Rodney Stuckey (though I’m not sure why) and have a solid back up point guard in Wil Bynum, and with Hamilton and Tayshawn Prince at the 2 and 3, I’m not sure why Dumars chased after Gordon so hard, and though I hope to be proved wrong, I think this will prove to be the biggest mistake Dumars has made. Chicago hasn’t been able to make a run with Gordon as their primary scorer, and nor will the Pistons. The other signing, Charlie V., isn’t so bad, but if he’s the starting power forward, as he was for the Bucks last season, I don’t see the Piston’s doing any better than the Bucks did last year. Raiding non-contenders for players that don’t even rank in the top ten at their position is not a good idea. Bringing Ben Wallace back seems to be a nostalgia thing more than a sensible move, even as a veteran in the locker room he can’t offer as much as other centers since he’s never had an offensive game, and though I like the addition of Chris Wilcox (who works the boards hard), I’m not sure that a line up featuring Maxiell, Charlie V, Wilcox and Kwambe Brown is going to be able to keep up with the opposing front courts in the Central Division let alone the rest of the league. The departure of veterans like McDyess and Rasheed Wallace is just too much for this squad to handle. Hopefully their influence has rubbed off on Brown and Maxiell, but I don’t think it will be enough to push Detroit into the playoffs. If only they had kept Chauncey and Okur!

5. Milwaukee Bucks

I’m starting a “free Michael Redd” campaign if anybody is interested. The Nets aren’t the only team to be throwing in the towel before the season begins, the Bucks are in that club to, and even if they have cap space next season, they won’t be able to lure any big names to Milwaukee. Last year I thought their line-up was solid, and had they stayed healthy I think they would have made the playoffs, but since Redd missed most of the season and Bogut and Charlie V. both had down time, the roster was out its best rebounder (Bogut) and also its best scorer and all around player (Redd) for much of the season. They finished last in the division last season, and I think it is a safe bet that since they gave away Richard Jefferson for next to nothing, and watch Charlie V. get signed away, that they will be there again this season. Had they hung on to Jefferson and Charlie V., I think that with the addition of a draft pick and a free agent, these guys could have really been a decent team, but there were no signings, and two key contributors to last season’s team are gone for next to nothing, and that is too much for a team like the Bucks to weather. I imagine that they will not only finish last in their division, but they will finish last with even fewer wins. Hopefully they move Michael Redd so basketball fans can watch this great talent play on a team that is contending. Perhaps Cleveland?

Southeast Division

1. Atlanta Hawks

At the start of the offseason the Hawks looked paper thin, and though they don’t have the depth that some contender have, they have made progress. They kept Bibby, which was a smart move, and so the entire starting line up form last season will be returning, and they have managed to get Jamal Crawford and convinced Joe Smith to sign, giving them two guys that combined can share all the back up minutes at power forward, small forward and shooting guard. Al Horford is a solid rebounder and defender who is still getting better and Zaza Patchouli (or is it Pachulia?) is one of the better back-up centers the league has to offer. Though Josh Smith doesn’t consistently get double digit rebounds, he is an anomaly athletically at his position and is one of the most versatile power forwards in the league, though he needs to work on his shooting. It may seem odd to put the Hawks over the Magic considering that the Magic just made a finals appearance, but I think if any fan watches the first two rounds of the playoffs, they will realize that Orlando isn’t as dominant as one might think and that while they matched up well against Cleveland (in part due to Cleveland’s lack of a true shooting guard and Turkalgu’s ability to take advantage of mismatches), they got out of the first round by the skin of their teeth and did much the same in the second round. If Boston and Philly both pushed Orlando to seven game without their starting power forwards (both of who are the best rebounder on those respective teams), imagine how quickly those series would have ended had Brand or Garnett been around to bang with Howard. Besides, its not fun to just pick last year’s division winner every time.

1. Orlando Magic

This division will be the toughest in the east this season, of that I have little doubt, so though Orlando is the safest pick for number one, it is not a gimmie. An single injury to any of their starters could put this team’s season in jeopardy, especially Howard. I think letting Turkaglu go was a huge mistake as he provided a lot of solid ball handling from the small forward position and created a lot of mismatches with his height and skill set. Rashad Lewis still isn’t rebounding the way a power forward should, but he is scoring well, and Dwight Howard is the most dominant interior presence in the league right now with Shaq being the only legit contender to that crown. Vince Carter could prove to be a huge step up at shooting guard, or a huge disappointment, its hard to say, and I think the point guard spot is just a big a question mark. Jameer Nelson played great last season and even in the playoffs with little time to warm up, but lets not forget that he was fighting for his starting spot two seasons ago and the Magic were courting Chris Duhon before last seasons started. Jason Williams is his new back up and as entertaining as he is, he has caused high turnovers in the past and has never been much of a shooter. That said I have to concede that they have a great coach and with as much talent as they have I would find it hard to believe that Orlando could finish easily finish first in their division. Come playoffs though their biggest help won’t be the guys on the floor, but the Ron Jeremy look-a-like they have on the sidelines, as Van Gundy seems to be a better coach when the playoffs role around.

3. Washington Wizards

I have not gone insane, I’m just probably wrong. I’ve just seen Miami underachieve too often in the regular season and have sadly lost all faith in Larry Brown. I love Flip Saunders (firing him was a huge mistake on the part of Joe Dumars), and in looking at the moves the Wizards have made, I have to concede that picking up Mike Miller was one of the best moves any team has made this offseason. Its one of those quiet moves than half-way through the season people will be saying “wow, that was a great steal”. Everybody knows how great Gilbert Arenas is, and after the way he played when he finally came back, I gotta believe the he’s going to stay healthy this year. I’ve made jokes in the past (and they have even come true) about him going out with injury again, but if he is healthy, and Antwan Jamison and Caron Butler both play as well as they have, with Mike Miller helping out at the 2, then this team is solid from 1-4. That leaves center and I will make this bold prediction: Brendan Haywood will not be the starting center by the end of the season. This Wizards team actually has some great potential sitting on the bench. Andray Blatche got some minutes last season and came through with a 10/5 season with about 24 minutes a game, which would have him as a 20/10 player in a 48 minutes game, while last year’s rookie JaVale may be the best McGee since Bobby as he also put up good rebounding and scoring numbers last year with 6.5 points a game and almost four rebounds in less than 15 minutes. He even got a block a game without getting into foul trouble too often (only 2 personal fouls a game last year). Dominic McGuire is also a rebounding stud (though his shooting percentage is a little low for his position), so Brendon Haywood will be fighting for minutes with some young players who are getting better. Even Jamison may find he gets to rest a little longer than he is used to this season. I don’t think these guys even have a chance of getting out of the first round, but they could very well find themselves in the playoffs. Flip Saunders is the coach they need to get them to play steady enough and consistently enough to get the Wizards into the playoffs and ahead of the Miami and Charlotte, but if another injury does keep Areas out of the line up, the Wizards will be lottery bound again.

4. Miami Heat

Dwayne Wade is undeniably a great player and likely the second best player at his position in the league. Mario Chambers is quality point guard who even as a rookie last year put up good numbers. Udonis Haslem is one of those Horace Grant type player who works the boards and only takes his shots when he is needed to, usually earning him a double-double most nights. Quinten Richardson will have some chemistry with Wade, with whom he works out with and practices with in the summers. But is all this enough? Jermaine O’Neal does not have to play as well as he did when he was an all-star for this team to win, but he does have to play consistently, which he has not been able to do. Both in Miami last season, and in Toronto, he had games where he played like he used to, grabbing 10 or 12 boards and scoring in the high teens, only to grab just 3 boards the next night and fail to break double digits in scoring. Michael Beasley showed some talent last year, but did not show the versatility that is needed to play small forward in the NBA, and he is too lean to play power forward. Joel Anthony is an over anxious shot blocker who gets lots of blocks, and lots of fouls, so even though he can work the boards, his enthusiasm on defence won’t let him stay in the game. On paper this looks like a great team, a team with lots of potential, but Wade’s expiring contract will serve to be a distraction for the Heat, and though he is a great individual player, he has not become the type of facilitator that Magic and Steve Nash were and are. They need an identity, and as it stands right now they don’t have a team identity, just individual players that are good, but as we saw last year, not good enough to make a legit run in the playoffs. They weren’t good enough to beat Atlanta in the playoffs, and they haven’t made moves to keep up with Atlanta in the offseason, so I just can’t see them pulling ahead this year.

5. Charlotte Bobcats

A team that looked to be on the upswing two years ago, came to a stand still last year, and now seems to be moving backwards. Tyson Chandler is a great rebounder and defender and should provide an interior presence that the Bobcats have been missing, but missing now is an offensive presence in the post since Okafor has been shipped off. The Bobcats still have made a choice as to who they are going to go with for starting point guard and though they have a solid defensive team on the perimeter with the likes of the versatile Gerald Wallace, Raja Bell and Boris Diaw, they are still lacking a true power forward. While the Bobcats have stood still, other teams have made moves to make their teams better, and though I don’t expect their record to be as dismal as the Bucks or the Nets, I don’t think it will be likely that they will be able to crawl out of last place in their division.

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NBA Ramblings: Calling All Point Guards!

Friday, July 24th, 2009

In this year’s draft teams seem to have gone point guard crazy. Even teams that have a solid point guard rotation picked up point guards in the draft. The Bucks had a solid point guard rotation this season and still drafted Brandon Jennings, the Jazz have one of the best point guards in the league (and a decent back up) and still drafted Eric Maynor, the Hornets have arguably the best point guard in the league and still drafted Darren Collison, and the T-Wolves drafted THREE point guards! Despite all floor generals picked up in this year’s draft, there are still some teams in dire need of a point guard. The Trailblazers have a couple of guys who have shown potential but no finite leader to play along side of Brandon Roy, the 76ers, who in my opinion are very close to being legit contenders for a titles, may find themselves two steps behind where they were last season if Andre Miller chooses to leave the team (as it seems very likely will happen), the Pistons have one of the best back-up point guards in the league in Will Bynum, but the starter, Rodney Stuckey, has an unimpressive field-goal percentage and an even less impressive assist-to-turnover ratio, and the Celtics would like to have a solid back-up to give Rondo Raja a break every now and then, and also have an insurance policy should anything happen to him in the course of the season. There are slim pickings in the free agent market at the point guard position, but there is good news as the only teams with cap space aren’t looking for a point guard (with the exception of Portland), so teams with the mid-level exception may be able to get bargain rates on a great point guard, while more creative GM’s might be able to broker a trade for some young talented point guards who have been stuck on the bench. So lets take a look at some point guards who may be able to help some teams at a low cost.

Nate Robinson (Knicks)

Lately Robinson has been looking to Europe to get a sizable offer, and since Earl Boykins did this last year, and earned himself a few more million than NBA teams were willing to offer (tax free and in Euros), Robinson may go that route. Some players though want to play on the big stage, and a dunk champ like Robison could make up for a small NBA pay check via endorsements, which may not be as lucrative in Europe (though I’m sure there are European companies who might offer American basketball players endorsement deals). So for Robinson the choice is between playing on the big stage, or getting a big pay check. If he wants the pay check NBA teams are out of luck. If he wants to play on the big stage he may be a good fit in Boston, who still has the bi-annual exception to offer him (2+ million dollars). He’d get to back up Rondo and get some minutes, and neither his size, nor the fact that he really plays more like a shooting guard than a point guard would hurt Boston since that is very much the role Eddie House played. Paul Pierce is a great ball handler and can set up the plays while Robinson is on the court, and Robinson’s speed and agility should help to spark Boston’s offence when Rondo is on the bench. Coupled with that, Robinson just seems like a great guy who wants to win and exudes a positive demeanour, and this is the type of player you want representing you off the court, and helping raise spirits in the locker room. He’d be a great addition to a championship contender, and Boston seems like it would be the perfect fit. The only draw backs are that Robinson can’t fill in at the point guard spot should Rondo get injured, and doesn’t have the range that Eddie House has. I don’t think there are a lot of other teams with whom Robinson would fit well, but if he doesn’t go to Europe, a one year contract with Boston should get him some exposure and raise the league’s interest in him as a solid role player on a legit contender.

Andre Miller (76ers)

Miller is the best point guard on the market right now and would be a great fit in either Philly or Portland. He is a veteran who has proven he can handle the responsibility, and is a big reason why Philly has been so successful the last couple of seasons. He was mature when Philly was losing and didn’t act like a prima Donna, and played at a high level when they started performing well and showed he could be depended on in pressure situations. His only draw back is that he’s on the wrong side of 30. That said, he’s only 33 (J. Kidd and Steve Nash are both on the wrong side of 35 and still commanding big contracts), and he is only asking for a respectable three or four year deal. I’m not saying that Miller is as good as Nash or Kidd, but come next season, he may very likely be playing better than either. His game is not in decline mode, he still plays as well as he did when he was 29, and he will be playing at that level for at least 2 more seasons. Sure, come the third or fourth season of a 3 or 4 year contract, his role may be reduced, but the bottom line is he’s not asking for all-star salary, just one that offers a little security. Miller stepped up his game in the playoffs, this year, put up better numbers than Kidd did, (20+ points, 6+ rebounds and 5+ assists), he shoots close the 50% from the floor and around 80% from the line (though he’s not great from behind the arc) and gets at least 2 assists for every turnover. Bottom line is that he’s a great player. He’s looking for a three year deal, and he will be playing at his current level certainly for the first two season of the deal, and would be a great mentor to any young point guard. Philly should do what it takes to keep him because he is a great fit there, but if they are too stingy then Portland should use their cash to pick him up. Portland is a young team and their window for contending will certainly be longer than the rest of Miller’s career, but he will put them a step ahead of where they were last season and give them a couple seasons helming the team, during which they can find an apprentice. Not too many other teams are in the running in terms of available cash, but Miller would be a great fit for any team in contention. European teams may also have an interest as well, and Miller’s playing legs would certainly last longer in Europe.

Travis Diener (Pacers)

The NBA’s free agent tracker says that Diener is a free agent, the Pacer’s home page does not, so I’m not sure what the situation is contractually with this guy (he may or may not have exercised his player option for this upcoming season), but the fact of the matter is that the Pacers are looking to cut salary (they’ve already let Marquis Daniels and Jarred Jack go and finally bought out Jamal Tinsley), and Diener doesn’t get a lot of minutes and is prime to get an opportunity. He’s 27, ready to start playing in his prime, but is locked on a team that has a starting point guard (T.J. Ford) who is earning big money and won’t be benched anytime soon. Diener is an attractive point guard for two reasons, he is a pass-first point guard with a great assist-to-turnover ration (2.2 assists last season and only 0.3 turnover for an insane ration of 7-1!) and shoots 39% from behind the arc, and his stats indicate that with starting minutes he’d likely get a couple steals a game. While his 1.6 rebounds a game seem meek, he only gets about 13 minutes a game and plays point guard, so that number actually shows great potential. This guy needs to start next season to see what he can really do. It would be a gamble for any team to start him because he’s never been the go-to guy at the point, but he’s shown that he has got the fundamentals down. I’m not sure how strong he is on defence, and that may or may not be a draw back, but its clear he can handle the ball very well and shoot from long range (though his mid-range shooting is nothing to write home about). And the best part is, as I have mentioned, he is a pass first point guard. Teams like Portland, Detroit, and Philly, who all have big scorers, would be a great fit for this guy, because he essentially only shoots when he’s open, and he gets the ball to the scorer without turning it over, and what more can you ask for from a point guard. If Philly is in need of a point guard come training camp, they should call up Indiana and see what it will take to pry this young talent away.

Ramon Sessions

In his rookie year Sessions put up 7.5 assists a game and only 2.1 turnovers, an impressive ration. His sophomore season saw his assists go down and scoring go up, along with his field-goal percentage, and he’s a consistent rebounder. Sessions may be the second best option at point guard in the free agent market, but like the other top point guards available this season, he’s a solid midrange shooter, but he doesn’t have much range behind the arc. If the 76ers lose out on Miller, they may want to make a run at Sessions.

Raymond Felton

His long range shooting isn’t so hot, and his midrange shooting isn’t much better, but he can drive the lane, handle big minutes, and distribute almost 7 assists a game with only a little over 2 turnovers a game. Like Sessions he is also young, which give him a leg up on a couple of the older point guards on the market, but he’s also a restricted free agent and Charlotte can match all offers.

Jammal Tinsely

Tinsley is veteran pass-first point guard with a respectful assist-to-turnover ratio and is dying to prove himself after a year in purgatory. I’m still not sure why the Pacers wouldn’t buy out his contract last season, but it the buyout is done and he’s ready to play. The big drawback for any team looking at Tinsely is his shooting (which is awful), but hopefully that is something he has worked on over the last season. With that shooting though Tinsley could be a major liability in the playoffs, but is an team loaded with offensive weapons and in need of a distributor could use Tinsley and even if he’s only a backup he can still offer a lot of help.

Jason Williams

A year after an oddly timed retirement announced only weeks after signing a lucrative deal with the Clippers, Williams is coming back out of retirement. Early in his career Williams was famous to two things: flashy passes, and turnovers. I always thought people were a little hard on him, but he has improved his ration over his career. What hasn’t improved much is his shooting, but he knows that himself and doesn’t push the matter during games by taking shots he should be taking. During their title run the Celtics saw several teams exploit Rondo’s inability to shoot the midrange jumper, the next season Rondo worked on that part of his game and is now putting up respectable numbers. Players like Williams and Tinsley though had exhibited poor shooting throughout their careers and that aspect of the game can really hurt a team come playoff time. Coming off the bench these types of players can help, but in a starting role it would be hard to win. The Celtics did it, but they also had Paul Pierce on the floor and he could handle the ball, while Rondo, though a poor shooter last season, could still cut to the whole as well as anybody in the league (and like Sessions, he has shown improvement in his midrange jumper).

Allen Iverson

There isn’t a team in the league that needs Iverson to score 30 points a game to turn them into a contender, and that seems to be essentially what Iverson wants. He wasn’t able to win in Denver (though they were able to win without him), and he made an issue about coming off the bench for Detroit, so there doesn’t seem to be many options for Iverson outside of retirement or Europe. If Iverson displayed the humility to come off the bench then a team like Boston could use him and be unstoppable with such a potent offensive weapon coming off the bench, but lets face it, Iverson is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body, which means he’s to small to defend other shooting guards. Iverson is at the point of his career that Dominique Wilkins was at when he skipped over the Europe. He wasn’t able to dominate like he had, and neither can Iverson, and no team sees him as a franchise player that they could put a team around. Had Iverson shown some maturity in Detroit, he’d be more appealing to other teams, but his acting out and baby tactics make him unappealing despite his talent level. His inability to defend, his age, and his maturity are all big question marks that make Iverson a big gamble that could cause a team to meltdown in the locker room, but being as talented as he is, he could be a big payoff. Sadly, I think his career is over and retirement or Europe are the only real options for Iverson.

Stephon Marbury

Much has been said about Tracey McGrady’s inability to get into the second round, but Marbury has had a similar issue. Only as a backup with Boston was Marbury able to make the second round and quite often his teams have missed the playoffs altogether. In the playoffs Marbury has yet to average double figures in scoring. New Jersey and Phoenix both saw dramatic improvements after moving Marbury, New Jersey replaced him with Jason Kidd and won back-to-back conference championships after missing the playoffs, while the Suns became perennial contenders with Nash after Marbury guided them to the lottery. That says a lot about what Marbury brings to a team. His personal stats have often been impressive, but his teams have seldom won. So it seems that Marbury doesn’t have much to offer teams and is in much the same situation as Iverson. Marbury has been open to offers from Europe and since he’s got a couple solid years left in him it seems logical that he might go somewhere where he could be employed. He’s a great scorer (though not a great shooter) and loves to play the game. But there just aren’t any teams that a player like that to make them better right now. Europe seems like the best place for Marbury, and he already has mentioned the idea of promoting his shoes over there.

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